If all goes well, the Stafford County School Board will have to close only a $700,000 funding gap in the budget for the next fiscal year.
That still might sound like a lot. But it’s “only” because, in the worst-case scenario, they will be faced with a $16.5 million difference between spending and revenue.
The county budget season might be over for the Board of Supervisors, which approved a spending plan Wednesday. But the School Board members still must reconcile the budget they OK’d in February with what the supervisors ultimately decided on.
The supervisors’ budget of more than $1 billion raised the county real-estate tax rate by 3 cents, from $0.8936 per $100 of assessed value to $0.9236 per $100. It included roughly $175 million for school operating costs, about $5 million more than this year’s level.
But that’s not enough to fully fund the $503.1 million education budget the School Board approved.
The supervisors, however, also agreed to hold a public hearing May 20 that could lead to more education funding.
Part of that hearing concerns a plan to increase the county meals tax rate from 5 percent to 6 percent, with the revenue generated from the 1 percent increase being devoted to raises for school employees. The idea is to try to get their pay increases to equal the 2.75 percent hike the supervisors approved for county government workers.
At the same time, it’s unclear exactly how much state funding the School Board will receive for the fiscal year that begins July 1.
The Virginia General Assembly, which is controlled by Democrats, approved a spending plan earlier this year that would generate $18.9 million more for the Stafford schools than last year.
But Gov. Glenn Youngkin is deciding whether to sign the budget bill, veto it or do nothing.
If Youngkin, a Republican, signs the bill by May 2 or does nothing, Stafford school officials said this week, then the General Assembly’s budget will become law.
But if Youngkin vetoes it, education funding likely would revert to a level that was agreed on last year. That would mean Stafford would see only a $6.1 million increase.
And if that happened, and the supervisors’ meals-tax deal isn’t approved, the School Board funding gap would reach $16.5 million. On the other hand, if the General Assembly’s budget becomes law and the meals-tax increase is approved, the lesser figure, nearly $700,000, would be the gap School Board members are tasked with filling.
Even if that best-case scenario occurred, though, matters still aren’t rosy, School Board members said at a work session Thursday night. That’s because those funding gaps were calculated assuming an $18.1 million cut to proposed pay raises for employees and School Board members.
Or, as Griffis-Widewater District School Board member Elizabeth Warner said, “The best-case scenario is still bad.”
If the worst-case scenario comes to pass, a host of negatives could result, Deputy Superintendent and Chief Operating Officer Chris Fulmer told the School Board. Those could include employee pay raises of only 1.5 percent, increased class sizes, reduction in tuition assistance and reduction in program offerings.
“Essentially, everything would be on the table,” Superintendent Daniel Smith said.
Rock Hill District School Board member Patricia Healy, though, said she doesn’t think she and her colleagues will face the worst case.
“I’m usually the pessimist, but I don’t think we’re going to be in the worst-case scenario,” she said.
The School Board didn’t votes Thursday, instead tentatively agreeing to vote on a new spending plan May 13.
There’s always another way Stafford could balance the budget, Warner joked Thursday: calling Youngkin, a former business executive, and just asking him to contribute several million dollars.
“You know, Youngkin’s rich,” Warner said.
