Not surprisingly, a white Christmas in Fredericksburg is rare, especially since the beginning of the 21st century. Climatologically, there is only about a 5-percent chance we will have a white Christmas — defined as at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Morning — in any given year.
Not too long ago, snow did fall on Christmas Day, just not in the morning.
In 2010, there was no snow on the ground at daybreak on Christmas. However, during the afternoon, a nor’easter started to take shape over central North Carolina, sending snow and sleet northward into Virginia, arriving in Fredericksburg just before sunset. That snow and sleet continued through the night.
Snow depth observations in Fredericksburg were not consistent during that time, but they do indicate one inch of snow on the ground at daybreak on Dec. 26, suggesting there was at least a coating of snow on the ground before the clock struck 12 at the end of Christmas Night.
Light snow, occasionally mixed with sleet, continued for most of Dec. 26, ending in Fredericksburg a few minutes after 8 p.m., but that storm went on to dramatically intensify near the Outer Banks, producing an unusually large amount of snow in nearby Norfolk — 14.2 inches.
Eventually, it continued northward up the East Coast, delivering more than 10 inches of snow to Virginia’s Eastern Shore, north to New Jersey, and into New England.
The little snow on the ground in Fredericksburg from that storm melted before New Year’s Eve, marking the end of an especially-cold December — one that had six nights in the teens and 29 of its 31 days colder than normal.
We have not had a December that cold since.
To find snow on the ground at daybreak on Christmas, we only need to go back one more year to 2009.
Although the precise amount of snow on the ground was lost to the record books, a huge storm brought snow to Fredericksburg between Dec. 18-19, 2009. The one snow depth record that survived indicated 18 inches of snow on the ground in Fredericksburg on Dec. 20. With the next four afternoons holding in the 30s or 40s, that snow was almost certainly in place on Christmas morning in 2009.
Unlike the 2010 storm, it fit the classic mold of Virginia snow storms. Norfolk did not get snow this time, but most areas north and west of Fredericksburg, including Washington and Charlottesville, were also blanketed in more than a foot. Some of the mountain communities in the Western Highlands received upwards of two feet.
After an otherwise quiet start to Christmas morning that year, a consistent southeast wind developed in the afternoon, sending temperatures into the upper 40s and bringing a windswept rain to Fredericksburg throughout Christmas night.
White Christmas prospects this year are slim.
A new surge of dry air from the Arctic comes in this weekend. Although a weak disturbance will approach Fredericksburg around the middle of next week, the coldest part of that air will retreat into New England before the disturbance arrives.
As a result, the elements will not be around to produce snow this year for Christmas in Fredericksburg. The best guess for Christmas Day right now is for a relatively uneventful one — a mostly cloudy sky with an afternoon in the 40s.
In the shorter term, plan on a cold weekend, with afternoons in the 30s. Daybreak temperatures on Sunday and Monday morning will tumble in the teens to near 20.
Looking further ahead, another mild spell will follow for the next weekend, with afternoons in the 50s for the weekend of Dec. 28-29. No snow to be found that weekend either.
And for those thinking about New Year’s Eve, while still a bit far in advance, there is not a lot of data to indicate a big polar outbreak. Temperatures will probably be near or above normal.
