Caroline County residents longing for another grocery option may have to embrace something many in the rural community consistently fight — growth.
That was the message from Michael Warsaw, the portfolio manager for Retail Strategies, the company hired by the county to assist with recruiting retail to Caroline, specifically a new grocery store.
The county currently has two Food Lion stores with one each in Bowling Green and Ladysmith.
Caroline was identified as the fourth-fastest growing locality in the state by the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center in January, growing by 9.3% from 2020-24.
But Warsaw said it’s going to take more growth to attract another grocery store, restaurants and retail.
During a presentation to the board of supervisors Tuesday night, Warsaw showed a graphic with blue dots representing 100 people in a general area on the county’s map.
“Housing growth is necessary. I’m going to say it until I’m blue in the face,” Warsaw said. “We need more housing growth to really, really attract these grocers. What they need is more blue dots on that map. That is going to drive this deal. That is going to drive any of the deals that we’re talking about.”
Warsaw said county staff is actively engaged in conversations with grocery store executives, but his company was hired to “turbocharge” the process. He said the county should target “general grocers” such as Giant, Kroger, Aldi, Lidl and Publix. He said “specialty grocers,” such as Sprouts Farmers Market, could be 10 years down the road if the county continues its growth pace.
“I’m not saying we need to get to the same dot density as Fredericksburg,” Warsaw said. “What I am saying though is we need more dots on the map … We need a slightly larger population, particularly within that Ladysmith corridor.”
Warsaw said that despite the growth in the county, which now has a population of nearly 33,000, there is a narrative in the business community that Caroline cannot support an additional grocery store. He said that the narrative must change. He believes faulty data is working against the county in the sense that it doesn’t consider the recent growth.
The typical grocery store requires anywhere from three to 12 acres, and the average size is between 40,000-55,000 square feet, Warsaw said. Aldi would be the smallest possible store as it can sit on three acres and requires just 22,000 square feet.
Jeff Black, the supervisor for the Western Caroline District, said he had a conversation with Publix representatives last year and was informed that they typically build 10 stores per year. Warsaw said they are likely preparing for stores three to five years down the road, and Caroline staff and his company must promote the county to keep it on the grocer’s radar. Visibility and traffic are also strong considerations for grocers, Warsaw said.
“What could give us an advantage? What could make us attractive to beat out those other localities?” Black asked. “We expanded Ladysmith Road to make it two lanes in each direction to attract retail, and grocery is obviously the big one. How much does traffic play in that because the traffic numbers that have been shown to us by VDOT have shown a massive increase since we have done that.”
While Warsaw made it clear that rooftops will drive retail, later in Tuesday’s meeting the county rejected 72 senior townhomes that would’ve been in Carmel Church. The board voted 4-2 against the project, with Supervisor Floyd Thomas of the Mattaponi District — where the project would’ve been located — saying he envisions the specific area to be used for commercial purposes.
The project’s applicant, Wilton Acquisition, was seeking to rezone nearly 10 acres of an existing 20-acre parcel from Business District to Planned Residential Development for 55-and-older townhomes, a pavilion, walking trail and dog park, near the Belmont at Carmel Church subdivision.
Thomas made a motion to deny the project, which was supported by Black, Reginald Underwood of the Reedy Church District, and Jeff Sili of the Bowling Geen District. Clay Forehand (Madison District) and Chair Nancy Long (Port Royal District) voted in favor of the project.
