- Few flurries possible Friday afternoon
- Accumulating snow starting Sunday night
- Final totals questionable, some ice also likely
The buzz of the season’s first snow is in the air, and the data increasingly suggest accumulating snow is likely across the Fredericksburg region between Sunday night and Monday.
A far weaker system pushes across Fredericksburg on Friday afternoon, spawning some rain or snow showers, but that system will be gone before midnight Friday. Much colder air arrives in the wake of that system, setting the stage for the next storm to produce snow and possibly ice Sunday night and Monday morning.
After a sunny and cold Saturday, clouds increase on Sunday, with some light snow arriving either late Sunday afternoon or evening.
It is important to remember that the storm is just arriving on the West Coast Friday, and a very small nudging in the position of the system by the time it gets to Virginia — by only a few dozen miles — will have a large impact on what falls around Fredericksburg and how much accumulates.
For now, it appears that snow arriving on Sunday will continue through the night, transitioning to a period of freezing rain, or just rain, later Monday morning before ending in the afternoon.
Sunday night temperatures will hold in the upper 20s, so treated primary roads should be okay. Other roads, however, will likely become snow covered and increasingly slick a few hours after dusk.
Following that schedule, a few inches of snow are likely to be on the ground in Fredericksburg by dawn Monday before a changeover to freezing rain, then rain, as temperatures creep above freezing during the afternoon.
Precise amounts will become clearer on Saturday, but there are indications of a sweet spot of heavier snow north and west of Fredericksburg — Fauquier, Culpeper, Orange, and Stafford counties — where snow totals may be in the ballpark of six inches shortly after daybreak on Monday morning.
Conversely, Caroline, King George, and Spotsylvania counties will likely get an inch or two less snow than Fredericksburg.
Air turns even colder Monday night, with temperatures in the low 20s at dawn on Tuesday. Any untreated damp or slushy surfaces late Monday will freeze once the sun sets.
If you have a driveway, try to clear it on Monday afternoon, because the frigid air will lock in for the rest of next week. No additional precipitation is expected Tuesday through Friday, but afternoons will be near or slightly above freezing and nights will drop deep into the teens.
The intensity of the cold is expected to ease by five to 10 degrees next weekend, and for now it also looks to be free of any rain or snow. However, the overall weather pattern favors development of winter storms to our southwest in the week that follows. While there is no obvious chance of snow for the week of January 13, it is worth watching a little more closely than normal for another possible winter storm.
Normal temperatures next week: Highs: Mid 40s, Lows: Mid 20s.
VDOT recommends caution
The Virginia Department of Transportation reminds area residents that slick road spots are most likely to occur first on elevated surfaces, such as bridges, ramps and overpasses.
Also, travelers may encounter brief delays on Interstate 95 and major routes while tanker trucks traveling about 35 mph apply a brine solution on the pavement.
VDOT encourages drivers to plan to arrive at a destination before icing or snowfall begins, or delay the trip until road conditions improve. Also, the agency says, it’s important to keep an emergency supply kit in your vehicle at all times.
Before starting a trip, travelers should check 511Virginia for road conditions along their entire route. They also can follow VDOT’s Fredericksburg District on X and join the district group Facebook page.
Motorists can contact the VDOT Customer Service Center 24 hours a day with questions or to report hazardous road conditions: 800-FOR-ROAD (367-7623).
Sean Sublette is a Virginia-based meteorologist and owner of Sublette Weather and Consulting.
