Update, 8 a.m.: In addition to the rain, several trees came down along Hartwood Road in Stafford County (near the unincorporated community of Heflin) on Thursday evening around 8 p.m. Early analysis suggests a tornado, and that finding will be confirmed by a ground survey in the coming days by a team of National Weather Service meteorologists.
Caroline County also had wind damage from a likely tornado just south of Ladysmith, with multiple trees down and at least 10 homes damaged in the Lake Caroline subdivision and adjacent parts of Cedar Fork Road.
Additionally, the Rappahannock River is now expected to crest Saturday morning around 7 feet — well below the flood stage of 13 feet downtown. For reference, the City Dock closes when the water reaches 10 feet, and Old Mill Park becomes inaccessible by car at 15 feet. The river will fall as quickly as it rises, likely below 6 feet by Sunday afternoon. Aside from the high water on the river, the actual weather this weekend across the Fredericksburg region looks pretty good.
Tropical Storm Debby is moving away and out of Virginia entirely this Friday morning, but the rain is not quite finished in Fredericksburg yet.
The center of the storm will race through western Pennsylvania and New York State Friday, taking the flash flood threat with it. However, a few short rounds of light to moderate showers and thunderstorms will push through the Fredericksburg region as late as Friday evening before sustained clearing takes shape before dawn Saturday.
Even though the total rain in Fredericksburg has not been phenomenally high, more rain has fallen westward in Culpeper, Madison, and Rappahannock Counties. Water runs downstream from those locations through creeks and tributaries, combining into the Rappahannock River about 10 miles northwest of Fredericksburg.
As a result, the river is expected to crest Saturday near the flood stage of 13 feet downtown — about the level that Old Mill Park begins to flood. For reference, the City Dock closes when the water reaches 10 feet, and Old Mill Park becomes inaccessible by car at 15 feet.
Getting to 15 feet would be about the same level as the crest on Christmas Eve in 2022 (14.9 feet).
The river will fall as quickly as it rises, likely below six feet by daybreak Sunday. Aside from the high water on the river, the actual weather this weekend across the Fredericksburg region looks pretty good.
Saturday will still be a bit humid to start with sun and clouds and temperatures approaching 90. Sunday brings a more noticeable drop in humidity, and an afternoon holding in the middle 80s. No rain is expected either day this weekend.
Debby’s exit also forces a shift in wind direction up at the jet stream level, becoming more consistently from the west and northwest across Virginia over the next several days. As a result, the drop in humidity on Sunday will last most of next week, and temperatures will be near or even slightly below normal — meaning highs closer to the middle 80s and nights returning to the 60s through at least Friday. This also means there are no signs of temperatures soaring into the 90s for at least a week.
Once the threat of showers and thunderstorms exits this Friday evening, the chance of rain also remains minimal through Thursday of next week, which is good and bad.
6-10 day temperature outlook from NOAA Climate Prediction Center (Graphic by Sean Sublette)
Although drought has marginally improved since the middle of July, the Fredericksburg region remains in a moderate drought. Before Thursday’s rain, areas further east into Caroline and King George Counties had fared much better in nudging away at the drought compared to areas west into Culpeper and Orange Counties.
And as we enter mid-August, we begin the climatologically most active period for the tropical Atlantic. There are very early signs of another tropical system wandering toward the western Atlantic Ocean during the weekend of August 17-18. If it does take shape, it would be named Ernesto. To emphasize, it is much too early to diagnose any specific track or impacts. However, the data remind us to keep an especially watchful eye on the tropics over these next several weeks.
Sean Sublette is a Richmond-based meteorologist.
